The German Construction Industry: Production and Employment 2007/2008

In 2006, after years of stagnating and even significantly declining production, the construction industry finally experienced a year of strong growth (Table 1). In nominal terms, the industry expanded by 7% in 2006. After allowing for price increases, there was real growth of almost 5%, much higher than expected. Admittedly, one cause of this expansion was the effect of a VAT increase announced for 1 January 2007. A large number of both public and private investors brought projects forward to 2006 to avoid the increased VAT charges. Yet at the beginning of 2007, undiminished high construction production could be observed and there was no sign of the expected backwash effects. In the course of the year, however, the growth rate in construction slowed considerably. There was a steep rise in construction prices at the beginning of 2007. Here, the large increase in VAT as of 1 January 2007 must be taken into account. But even without the effect of higher VAT, the price increase over the previous year amounts to around four percent. This is partly due to higher construction costs. On the other hand, we can assume that companies also experienced an improvement in their earnings. Towards the end of 2007, prices began to stabilize. Nevertheless, the average real growth of construction volume for 2007 was only just under 2%. In 2008, continued moderate growth is expected for real construction volume. The annual average growth rate should be 1%. In the new Länder the growth rate should be lower than in the old Länder.Housing demand, Construction industry, Estimates 2008

Nach 1995 deutliche Wachstumsschwäche der deutschen Wirtschaft im internationalen Vergleich

Im Folgenden werden ausgewählte Ergebnisse einer neuen Datenquelle zur Messung von Wachstum und Produktivität im internationalen Vergleich präsentiert. Die Informationen decken den Zeitraum von 1970 bis 2004 ab. Sie zeigen, dass Deutschland seine langjährige Wachstumsführerschaft in Europa im Laufe der 90er Jahre verloren hat. Die aktuellen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Daten für 2006 sowie die Schätzungen für 2007 und 2008 deuten allerdings darauf hin, dass Deutschland mittlerweile wieder Anschluss an die Entwicklung in den übrigen Ländern der EU gewonnen hat.Growth, Productivity, European Union

Germany's Construction Industry: Strong Growth Followed by Stagnation

2011 was one of the construction industry's strongest years of growth since German reunification. For the year as a whole, a nominal increase in construction volume of almost eight percent is expected. The price increase is forecast at over 2.5 percent. Real construction volume in 2011 will be over five percent higher than in 2010. However, according to current information, we can expect the construction industry to experience a break in growth in 2012. Real construction volumes will barely be higher than in 2011. This development is partly due to the phasing out of economic stimulus packages. Further, the promising announcements of support for energy-efficient modernization as part of the change in energy policy for residential construction has had more of a negative impact on the construction industry. The predicted reluctance to invest will only be overcome if the German government swiftly determines specific financing conditions for the coming years.Construction industry forecast, economic outlook

Germany's Construction Industry: Stabilization on the Horizon

The construction volume this year will reach a value of just under euro 230 billion _ a drop as compared to 2004 of close to 3%. At approximately 1.5%, the price increase should turn out somewhat higher than the previous year, which means the real construction volume will thus shrink by a good 4%. While the development during the first six months of this year was clearly on the decline, improved demand in the second half of the year makes a recovery likely. After many years of a downward trend, the construction industry could bottom out next year. Even if real construction of new buildings probably will not grow, at least the shrinking process is likely to come to an end. In particular commercial construction is a motor for growth.

More People, More Jobs: Urban Renaissance in Germany

Germany's big cities are gaining in attractiveness both as a place for living and as a location for companies. Even as Germany's total population is declining, the population of cities increased by nearly 3 percent between 1999 and 2008. The same is true for spatial shifts in the economy: During the past 10 years employment in big cities increased by nearly 4 percent while stagnating in Germany as a whole. Demographic and economic trends towards cities influence each other. On the one hand young skilled people are accepting job offers in the cities. On the other hand companies are now taking the preferences of highly skilled employees into account when choosing a location because know-how is scarce. The big cities' new attractiveness is especially appealing to young people with an above-average income. Their main problem is to reconcile their career desires with their wish for a family. Cities are more able to profit from the new trend in people's choice of residence if they create better conditions for children. At the same time, good urban planning can help mitigate the social conflicts and expulsion effects that result from gentrification in the city centers.Knowledge-intensive services, Urban renaissance, Population growth

Building Sector: Stimulus Packages Make an Impact

The sharp slump of the German economy has left its mark on the building sector. Commercial construction has been especially affected by the significant decline in companies' propensity to invest - triggered by the macroeconomic downturn. However, due to the stable development of real wages and the overall labour market as well as targeted supporting programmes, the recession has more or less bypassed residential construction. Public sector construction even increased in 2009, most notably during the later half of the year when the effects of the second stimulus package came into force. Nevertheless, due to idle capacities in commercial construction, only moderate price increases are to be expected. Overall - and in real terms - , 2009 will see little change in German construction volumes compared to the previous year. In 2010, stimulus packages will encourage a noticeable recovery, which - in turn - will have a positive effect on the country's overall economy. All in all, construction volumes are expected to grow by more than two per cent (adjusted for price) in 2010 and the main construction industry will profit disproportionately. From an economic point of view, the investment programmes thus meet their intended goal: stabilisation of the construction sector.Housing demand, Construction industry, Forecast 2010

Germany 2007: Undiminished High Construction Production and Increased Construction Prices

After the high growth of 2006, the first quarter of 2007 also shows undiminished high construction production. Evidence of this is provided by the number of hours worked, which see growth rates in double figures in all fields of civil and structural engineering; yet it is surprising that growth in industrial construction lagged somewhat. It remains to be seen to what extent the extremely strong increase in the performance of the construction industry reflects demand or simply consistently favourable weather conditions, for there was actually no real winter in the two quarters preceding and following the new year. Data on the finishing industry in the first quarter indicates a lower dynamics - the number of hours worked increased by almost 8%, compared with 24% in the construction industry. This means that the demand for construction work and services related to existing buildings, particularly in housing construction, is not continuing at the high level last achieved.Housing demand, Construction industry, Forecast 2007

Intangibles, Can They Explain the Dispersion in Return Rates?

It is argued that the observed return rates on capital at firm-level have an upward bias if firms are producing with unobserved intangible capital. Using EUKLEED, a comprehensive firm level data base for Germany, this theoretical preposition is proved empirically. Furthermore, making unobserved capital observable the dispersion in return rates reduces dramatically. The results clearly support the assumption that a considerable part of the observed dispersion in return rates among firms can be contributed to unobserved capital formation in intangible capital. Firms with high input in intangibles also have an above average observed rate of return. However, the question to what extent a more intense use of intangibles can be the cause for higher return rates in the sense of both the monopoly-based and the innovation-based explanations is not answered.Intangible capital, Rate of return, Firm-level profitability

Investment in intellectual capital needs to increase by 35 billion euros per year. Bertelsmann Policy Brief #2019/07

In today’s world, not only do businesses invest in machinery and buildings, they also increasingly invest in research and development, software and digital skills. Yet German companies are well behind their international counterparts in terms of investment in socalled intellectual capital. This represents a threat to the overall competitiveness of the German econom

Bauwirtschaft: positiver Trend hält 2008 an

Die Bauwirtschaft sieht nun schon im dritten Jahr in Folge einer positiven Gesamtentwicklung entgegen. Das Bauvolumen in Deutschland dürfte in diesem Jahr einen Wert von nominal fast 280 Milliarden Euro erreichen. Gegenüber 2007 entspricht dies preisbereinigt einem Zuwachs von nochmals gut einem Prozent. Der entscheidende Wachstumsmotor ist die weiterhin expansive Nachfrage im Wirtschaftsbau. Aber auch im öffentlichen Bau wird die Entwicklung voraussichtlich überdurchschnittlich sein. Im Wohnungsbau ist dagegen übers Jahr gerechnet mit einer leicht rückläufigen Produktionsleistung zu rechnen.Housing demand, Construction industry, Forecast 2008